Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
